The 4th week of Fishmeal market weekly report in 2010: The restocking situation was worth concerns

1.         International market

Peru

This week, the Peruvian fishmeal price was stable, at present, the FOB reference price of the Peruvian super steam fishmeal was about 1700 dollars per ton. It was reported that, the FOB reference price of the next fishing season Peruvian super steam fishmeal was about 1640-2650 dollars per ton with insufficient supply. At present, the purchasing enthusiasm of the European traders was sluggish, moreover, the current fishing volume per day was less, and the fresh fish price jumped to 350 dollars per ton.

Chile

This week, with the stable Chilean fishmeal price, the fishing condition of the northern Chile turned a little better. At present, the FOB reference price of the super steam fishmeal of local various qualities was about 1650-1700 dollars per ton, there was nearly no stock volume in the local southern spot market. Therefore, the local traders mainly presold the fishmeal and their price was about 1720-1740 dollars per ton, moreover, the supply volume of Chilean turtle iron fishmeal was insufficient, and its price was about 2100 dollars per ton with flourishing procurement.

Table 1¡¡the latest quotation price of the international fishmeal on January 29 (Peru, Chile)

2.       Domestic market

Inventory: according to our site statistics, as of January 27th, the gross stock volume of domestic main port was 55,000 tons, among which Huangpu port was 20,000 tons, Shanghai port was 12,000 tons, Fuzhou port was 10,400 tons, Tianjin port was 1,600 tons, Dalian port was 3,000 tons, Zhanjiang port was 1,500 tons, Fangcheng port was 550 tons, and other ports 4,000 tons.

Imported fishmeal

The 4th week (January 25th ¨CJanuary 31st) in 2010, this week, as the new fishmeal successively arrived at ports, the dynamic restocking situation of the feed enterprises was the spotlight. The marketable supply volume increased and the stock volume went up as well. At present, the stock volume of domestic ports was over 50,000 tons, some traders was very enthusiasm for selling. However, the domestic fishmeal market was in the traditional dull season, and the pig feed enterprises were the dominant buyers in the demand market. The current live pig plague caused the pig feed consumption decrease apparently, and also slowed down the further fishmeal consumption of the pig feed enterprises, which caused the sluggish transaction in the domestic fishmeal market. The buyers expected to the downward price in the further market, while with the current insufficient supply volume, even if the new fishmeal arrived at ports after the festival, while the aquatic breeding industry gradually recovered, the rigid demand was worth concerns. The deadlock between the suppliers and demanders was not change; they all waited for the change of the further market.

The special details were as follows:

Huangpu port:

This week, the Huangpu port fishmeal price was stable, the offering price of the super FAQ fishmeal (65% CP) was about 12300-12500yuan per ton, and the offering price of the super steam fishmeal of the new season was about 13500yuan per ton. The offering price of Taiwan FAQ fishmeal (65% CP) was about 12500-12700yuan per ton. At present, the international fishmeal market was still stable, which supported the domestic fishmeal traders¡¯ confidence, while the transaction of this market was still sluggish.

Fuzhou port:

This week, the turtle iron fishmeal price kept firm, with various qualities, the reference price of the local turtle iron fishmeal was 13000-16000yuan per ton. This week, the white fishmeal supply was tight, and the reference price of the Russian white fishmeal was about 14500yuan per ton, due to the tight supply volume, the traders had suspended offering their price.

Shanghai port:

This week, the fishmeal price was stable, the recent offering price of common FAQ fishmeal (over 65% CP) was about 12000yuan per ton, and the offering price of Taiwan SD fishmeal was about 13000yuan per ton, the super steam fishmeal price was about 13300-13500yuan per ton. With the sluggish transaction, the traders were unwilling to sell.

Tianjin port:

This week, the fishmeal price of Tianjin port was stable as well, at present, the offering price of Peruvian super steam fishmeal (65% CP) of the new season was about 13600yuan per ton; the offering price of Peruvian super steam fishmeal (67% CP) some traders was about 13000yuan per ton, the offering price of the Peruvian FAQ was about 12200-12600yuan per ton. It was reported that, the holistic fishmeal market was stable, and the marketable transaction was sluggish. Due to the little stock volume and the current circumstance, the price was not optimistic.

Dalian port:

The week, the transaction price of Dalian port increased, the offering price of FAQ fishmeal (65% CP) was about 12000-12200yuan per ton, and the offering price of super steam fishmeal was about 13500-14000yuan per ton. At present, as the new fishmeal arrived at ports successively, the dynamic restocking situation of the feed enterprises was the spotlight. Although the market reached deadlock, with the stock volume increase, the traders would like to sell.

Fangcheng port:

This week, the price was also stable. The recent price (above 65% CP) of the common fishmeal was about 12000yuan per ton, the price of Taiwan fishmeal was above 12500yuan per ton, and the super steam fishmeal price was about 13000-13300yuan per ton. The local fishmeal market reached deadlock.

3.       Market analysis

3.1     The rigid demand of the fishmeal and the restocking before the festival was nonexistence in the current market.

It was well known that, at present, it was the dull season for the aquatic breeding, and the market had no room for the rigid demand of the fishmeal. While the fishmeal price soared successively in the later half of this year due to the tight supply in the domestic and foreign market, which was within reach of their all-time high of 12000-13000yuan per ton logged on 2006. With the fishmeal price soaring, the restocking before the Chinese New Year was nonexistence. The sluggish fishmeal transaction was caused by the further expectation for the downward price and the funds occupancy before the Chinese New Year.

3.2      With the stock volume increase, the situation of the fishmeal supply improved.

At the beginning of January, the freighter ¡°FuYangShan¡± loading 15,400 tons of Peruvian new fishmeal arrived at Shanghai port and Huangpu port, since the medium January, few containers also entered into the Chinese market. On 24th, the freighter ¡°Antares¡± arrived at Huangpu port, which had not discharged due to the tight loading pockets. With the influence of the news of less arrival volume, the fishmeal stock volume of holistic ports stand at 40,000-50,000 tons. Although it had certain gap between the current stock volume and the normal stock volume of 100,000 tons, it had improved compared with stock volume of 27,000 tons.

3.3     The procurement of the domestic fishmeal was relatively active.

It was the centralized period for the domestic fishmeal processing and entering into the market since last fall. Although domestic fishmeal had successively influence from the imported fishmeal and cost increased due to the domestic tight fishmeal supply, compared with the imported fishmeal, it had advantage in the price relations. At present, the transaction price of the domestic full-degreased fishmeal (55%-60% CP) was 9000-10000yuan per ton, 2500-3000yuan per ton lower than 12000-125000yuan per ton of the imported fishmeal. With the high price of the imported fishmeal, feed enterprises would like to use and purchase the domestic fishmeal; therefore, the imported fishmeal demand was restrained.

4.       Market analysis

Generally speaking, due to the deadlock between the suppliers and the demanders, the fishmeal would maintain the high price. The marketable trend after the festival was the spotlight. As the Peruvian fishmeal gradually arrived at ports, the supply tension would relieve, however, with the gradual recovery of the Chinese aquatic breeding industry and the cost increase of the imported fishmeal, the fishmeal price would not fall sharply.

Table 2¡¡Prices of fishmeal in domestic market (Yuan/ton)

Figure 1¡¡Average prices of domestic imported fishmeal in most ports (Yuan/ton)